housingsupply.
Despite endless policy announcements from Victoria, NSW and the Federal Government, actual delivery keeps falling further behind public headline commitments.
The facts: • The National #housingaccord target of 1.2 million homes over 5 years is now expected to fall ~380,000 dwellings short. Not a small miss.
• Across the combined capital cities, supply is forecast to miss targets by ~287,000 dwellings.
• Victoria faces a ~166,000 shortfall against its own State targets over five years.
• NSW will miss its Greater Sydney target by ~150,000 dwellings over the same period.
• Apartment construction – the supply governments claim will magically “fix” #affordability – is circa 50% below decade averages in Sydney and Melbourne.
• Build‐to‐Sell apartment output has collapsed by two‐thirds since 2016.
⛔This is not a mere market failure. It’s policy failure manifest, caused by years of actions that do the opposite of unlocking more homes.
The development industry (and me!) has been warning governments for years about: • fiddling with planning settings that don't fix #feasibility • increasingly punitive taxes and charges • slow approvals • infrastructure bottlenecks • regulatory creep killing apartment/built form feasibility
State of the Land confirms what developers, builders and financiers already know: demand isn’t the problem – deliverability is.
Yet instead of fixing feasibility, governments keep: • setting higher targets • blaming “the market” • announcing reviews instead of removing barriers or facilitating actual projects
The result remains predictable: higher prices for new homes, less supply, tighter rental markets, and fewer first‐home buyers.
But we get lovely fake targets that exist only in press releases.
If governments want housing outcomes, not excuses, the path is obvious: enable land, fund infrastructure, fix planning, faciliate feasibile projects, restore confidence.
🤔Until then, #housing targets will just remain numbers on a meme – while Australians keep paying the price.