is performing on housingsupply?
Today's NHSAC Quarterly Report (https://lnkd.in/g8VTvSBU) reports Victoria "leading the way", well on the way towards its allocated 306,000 target, just one quarter late.
This is despite January 2026 #dwellingapprovals being at the lowest point since, well, ever – a mere 2,254 for the month (that's the actual number from Australian Bureau of Statistics).
📉The last time Victoria had a worse month was February 2007, mid-GFC, when 2,139 total #building approvals were received. And October 2000 was the only other time this century.
This chart illustrates just how far off the approval numbers are from where they need to be. By my forecasts, Vic is on track to only circa 260,000 completions (which is the relevant measure) over the Accord, almost a full year behind the low target. A 35% approval increase is needed, on average, every month from here to get back on track.
If you take my population-adjusted target for the State, the more relevant measure, Victoria should have a ~360,000 target, from which it will fall short by over two years.
And if you take the Victorian Government's own 800,000 #housingstatement target, it is on track to be 3 years behind.
It's also cute of the NHSAC to state that taxing more through the Vacant Land Tax and increased infrastructure contributions are somehow positive steps towards more housing supply.
🤔Victoria remains shot for development and investor confidence alike, and pretending otherwise is not helpful to anyone. Approvals, commencements and completions are all tracking downwards or flat, at best, in the state.
That, and approving projects that are not capable of proceeding to commencement any time soon due to #feasibility is a fools' errand.