Commentary
Housing supply, planning, tax and feasibility — analysis written by Max and republished from LinkedIn.
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Roughly 56,000 homes were built in the year to June, 10% below the prior decade average. Against a target of 80,000. Meanwhile rents continue to climb, hitting a record $600 a week.
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Presumably somebody has the key, because the infrastructure it unlocks does not arrive until 2055. The Victorian Government has just announced the Fishermans Bend Development Contributions Plan (DCP).
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The Covid Debt Levy landtax was to raise north of $5.65bn by the end of this financial year. Department of Treasury and Finance, Victoria have it landing nearer $4.67bn, a $984m shortfall.
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Why? Because commencements – the number that decides what gets built – have just peaked.
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August 2026: total approvals fell 6.1% to 16,953 in seasonally adjusted terms. In the raw original terms, 16,968 against a revised 19,277 in July — down 12%. And here is what the headline hides.
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It was a failure of feasibility. Two years on from much-lauded missingmiddle reforms, just 3,333 of the promised 112,000 housingtargets homes hold an approval.
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It is a marketing piece. Forty years of challenges, and every one happens to have been solved by measures recently legislated by this Federal Government?
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New data from Revenue NSW : $631 million in residential stamp duty collected in August 2026: down 24 per cent on a year earlier. Sale volumes fell 18 per cent – a third straight month of decline.
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We were told in the May Federal budget that changes to the tax regime would encourage capital to flood into new supply.
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It was a feasibility problem. The Federal Budget made both worse.