close to meeting its housingaccord target.
The NHSAC's recent report projects Victoria will meet 98% of #housingtarget under the National Housing Accord – 306k new dwellings over 5 years. Australian Bureau of Statistics approvals data continues to show otherwise.
May 2025 dwelling approvals are out and Victoria continues to underperform against every target, by a long way.
👍🏻As a reminder, the rule of thumb is ~90% of approvals translate to a new dwelling, so approvals must run ~10% higher than the actual housing target.
This chart shows recent approvals remain well under even the (incorrect) Housing Accord target. Roughly 5,600 approvals per month are needed, on average, yet the total for May 2025 was 4,589 (or 4,482 in 2025 YTD).
It's worse against what the Housing Accord target for Victoria should have been – 360k in 5 years – based on proportion of expected population growth (explained here: https://lnkd.in/gG73QeJF).
And, of course, no where near the Victorian Government's own #housingstatement target of 800k new homes over a decade or 400k in the Accord Period.
Are approvals coming off the bottom? Yes. But it will be a slow build to get new housing up materially, let alone make up for the existing backlog.
🤔I keep raising this because politicians are great at picking tidbits like "we are on track to hit 98% of the target" to justify more status quo, instead of understanding the data and realising things are a long way from where they claim.