I was perplexed by Myriam Robin's article on Friday: https://lnkd.in/g8a-PiAG): "Developers may hate Victoria, but it’s shaming other states on housing".
The premise is my home State is outperforming others on #housing. Here are six reasons this is completely wrong.
1️⃣"Victoria will reach its share of the #housingaccord #housingtarget of 306,000 homes". I've demonstrated (https://lnkd.in/gG73QeJF) the target is flawed; Victoria is growing faster than any other State, yet NSW growing 10% slower has a 5-year target 70,000 or 23% higher! Where's the logic or mention of the State's own 400,000 target over 5 years?
2️⃣"The most new dwellings per person". Yes, Victoria is building more per (existing) head. It's not building the most homes per extra person, which is a better measure of supply meeting demand.
3️⃣Brendan Coates noting "apartments explain Melbourne's dwelling prices being flat". A high-ish proportion of apartments skews Melbourne's median dwelling price down, but it does not explain why Melbourne's median house price is now 6th highest of the capitals. It glosses over recent underperformance of Victoria due to debt, over-regulation and high taxes.
FWIW, Sydney is near double Melbourne's density, yet its unit prices, new & existing, are much higher.
4️⃣ The article says reforms have "helped unleash the current boom". What boom? Since the Housing Statement in Sep 2023, approvals & commencements have fallen in Victoria compared with prior. Nothing checking Australian Bureau of Statistics data (or I) couldn't tell you: https://lnkd.in/g6YiZQc8 or https://lnkd.in/gg6nHbHE.
5️⃣The virtues of the "Development Facilitation Program" and the Minister calling things in. The truth is the DFP's 4 months only starts after a lengthy "preapproval" process which can take six months or more. It barely saves time, and costs more through additional requirements, so many skip it. It does potentially guarantee outcomes.
And 11 whole Ministerial call-ins this year is hardly a response to an alleged #housingcrisis given the backlog across all manner of projects.
6️⃣Letting the Minister repeat talking points about growth areas growing a 400% faster than established suburbs. These were paddocks 30 years ago after all; of course they will grow faster as a percentage.
Per Tim Gurner and Shane Quinn ABV is right, with the many natural advantages we have being squandered here.
The best we have is "at least we aren't Sydney". Not much to brag about.