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I recently posted about the National Housing Supply and Affordability Council's State of the Housing System 2025, which included forecasts against targets across the States.
Stangely, it projects Victoria to be on track to achieve a decent 98% of its allotment, well ahead of the other States.
The fatal flaw with the #housingaccord targets is that they were based on existing population proportions, not forecast growth. This is odd when the Federal Government has a Centre for Population (CPop) whose entire job is to do just that.
Thus, I went and used the population growth figures from the latest CPop update (from March 2025: https://lnkd.in/gUMFUfKG) to revise the Housing Accord Targets. This table shows the results.
In short, the target for VIC is 54,000 lower than it should be according to expected growth. Conversely, NSW is 54,000 higher than it should be, penalised due to a high starting population.
There are also 30,000+ increases necessary for QLD and WA, which are forecast to experience faster growth in the coming years, and reductions in SA, TAS and NT.
Only the ACT was given the right target. Shows that the Canberra bubble only really understands Canberra… 😂
That said, VIC would still lead the bigger states with a revised ratio of 83%. But you'd also suddenly have TAS and SA massively over targets.
🤔As I wrote earlier, I believe VIC's forecast gross supply is overstated based on current slow approvals and commencements. I anticipate actual completions in the 260 – 270k range over the period, which would drop this to 75% or less, and lead to the largest total dwelling shortfall.
I also expect NSW to fall way short, given the specific feasibility challenges it faces yet which the Government of New South Wales (NSW Government) fails to accept with its current focus. And I think a 262k overall shortfall is optimistic, with UDIA National's estimate over 300k being closer to the mark.
Unless the State and Federal Governments quickly change tact, things will only continue to get worse for #housingsupply and #housingaffordability