After all, commencements tell you what will be completed in future.
The September QTR 2024 saw 14,193 dwelling starts in Victoria. Up from the lows of 12,232 in June, but no where near the 20,000 required to meet the 80k p.a.
#housingstatement target.
YTD: 25,586 new houses and just 14,365 units commenced. 39,941 total.
2023 was a terrible year for new starts at 52,441, and 2024 could end up lower again depending on the December QTR. My guess is starts will reduce again, which would see the lowest annual commencements since 2013. For the second year in a row.
The unit numbers are even worse. Anything lower than 4600 new unit starts in the December QTR will mean the lowest multi-residential starts in 15 years! How's that 70:30 target looking?
Meanwhile, detached house starts should just beat 2023's effort but will probably be the second or third lowest in the decade.
Overall, this points to around 110,000 new dwelling completions across VIC in 2025 and 2026 – already 50,000 short of the Victorian Government target two years in.
Just ~18,000 units against a target of 44,000 new infill homes p.a. (70% of 63,000 in established parts of Melbourne). With little announced that will change this dynamic any time soon.
🤔There are still housing opportunities that could start to bridge the gap sooner – if we focus on the right things, and the necessary efforts are made to unlock them.