with the least affordable housing and the highest homelessness.
#Residential developers in this state used to be highly effective in delivering (relatively) affordable market housing, but that capacity has been steadily eroded through: 💸 increased taxes, charges & contributions 🏘️ lack of greenfield planning ( #PSP) and middle-ring #zoning approvals 📋 endless red tape growth 👷🏻♂️ competition for labour and materials from government infrastructure projects
I'm no #homelessness advocate; much better people than me undertake that honourable task.
I can just do the simple math, yet to be grasped by government, that the more new market housing becomes unattainable, the more pressure is put on the public sector to deliver housing and support to those that can't afford it.
With housing approvals and new supply both dropping rapidly, the state's homelessness problem is only going to increase. The tiny proportion of social housing stock, even after the "big build" and preferential town planning treatment for pet projects, can't keep up with what will be an obvious and exponential rise in homelessness.
Social welfare systems will not cope with the influx in demand, and the State Budget cannot handle the cost of what is coming.
There remains a pervasive view from the Victorian Government that we can tax and regulate ourselves into prosperity and affordability – just look at some of the most recent proposed #greenfield #development #contribution schemes.
The truth is the opposite, of course, compounded by a myopic focus on housing typologies which are not #affordable to the majority of the marketplace.
All this will manifest in 2026, when the impacts of two years of low approvals and commencements translates into record lows in new housing completions.
🤔The choice is stark: start making some fast, positive decisions to unlock more attainable housing, or start setting ourselves up for tent cities.
Key Facts: • 2.8% of Victorian Housing stock is in social housing (lowest in the nation) • 47 homeless persons per 10,000 in Victoria from 2021 Census (highest, bar NT which has very different circumstances). Expect this to grow rapidly in 2026.
• Housing approvals and commencements remain around 12-year lows