As I predicted, housing starts for the year ended up lower than 2023 – 52,054 for 2024 (against the #housingstatement target of 80,000) vs an already terrible 52,441 in 2023.
The last time we saw so few starts was in 2013, where just 45,757 homes began construction. Note: that was against a backdrop of lower population growth.
Worse still – the number of unit starts at 18,442 is the lowest since 2009! Hence pushing my chart out further.
2023 and 2024 commencements will correlate to the completions over the coming 2-3 years, so expect roughly 150,000 completions across Victoria in the first 3 years of the Housing Statement against the 240,000 that should have been completed. A 90,000 shortfall, meaning you'd have to average 95,000 per year for the balance.
It also means that VIC will fall well short of the much lighter Federal #housingaccord target.
🤔A great start to getting more young people into more housing…
At some point the Victorian Government might start prioritising unlocking projects that make financial and construction sense and can be delivered quickly to reverse the trend, instead of pushing approvals for the sake of it for stuff that won't get built.
I know we've been trying our hardest to deliver more land and homes across the State, yet keep getting caught in the bureaucratic spin cycle. I know many of my industry peers are feeling the same frustrations.
If Government was serious, here's what could be done quickly to unlock much #feasible housing in the short term Department of Transport and Planning: ✅Call in and fast-track rezoning/planning process on all land capable of delivering housing at scale (i.e. 300+ homes). Without additional quid-pros ✅Look carefully at immediate land opportunities on the periphery of metro Melbourne and townships in infrastructure rich areas ✅Re-allocate funding to infrastructure which unlocks new development fronts instead of a handful of mega projects ✅Pause the regulatory scope creep
All of this can be done within the existing system if the State Government was a mind to. No legislative change, just existing powers with a bit of intensity.
If we are in a #housingcrisis, act like it.