The housing election is a demand auction with nothing on the supply side

both sides.

The Australian Labor Party is promising $10B in grants, loans and equity to build 100,000 "affordable" homes for #firsthomebuyers. This is tied to State Governments contributing a total $2B and offering up public land to, presumably at low or zero cost to reduce the overall cost of delivery.

How affordable is measured remains unknown, and where the land for 100,000 homes is remains a mystery.

The ALP would also open the existing first home buyer #guarantee to all FHBS, without a cap, meaning 5% will be enough to purchase a home without triggering LMI and saving mortgage costs.

This is expansion of policy first implemented by the previous Coalition government, and enjoys bi-partisan support. AFAIK this is not targeted at new homes.

The Liberal Party of Australia countered with the first home buyer mortgage deduction scheme where FHBs can deduct mortgage payments on a newly built home from taxable income – up to $650,000 and for 5 years. It would be means tested for households earning up to $250k.

The problem with today's promises is continued demand stimulus without tackling the barriers to more affordable #housingsupply – cost, time and planning.

Poor state planning coordination and a misguided focus on ideologicial housing in the face of #economics continues in the largest two states. This remains the biggest barrier to reaching the 1.2m home #housingaccord goal. It's far too late to do anything to reach it now so the best that can be done is bridge the gap as best as possible.

NSW Department of Planning, Housing and Infrastructure and Department of Transport and Planning planners remain ideolgically obsessed with high density in metro areas which will not be "affordable" for most buyers, incentives and stimulus nothwithstanding. This will remain so if the land is given away in many cases.

The Coalition has previously announced a $5B investment in enabling infrastructure for new #development areas which could assist with supply. But this will require NSW and VIC to direct their planning systems to take advantage instead of holding onto the notion that apartments in metro activity areas will solve the issue.

They will not. Paul Scully and Sonya Kilkenny need to look critically at what their departments are doing.

Meanwhile the QLD State Government appears to have an appreciation of the issue and committed its own infrastructure fund with $2B. And SA and WA have publicly realised the importance of unlocking supply everywhere and not holding onto the status quo on infill which won't work.

🤔Expect much more noise on housing as we head towards 3 May.

First published on LinkedIn, 2025-04-13. Read the original post.

Source: abc.net.au