To no one’s surprise, the proportion of new housing built in greenfield areas is only increasing – despite the Department of Transport and Planning’s best efforts.
The so-called “70:30” strategy – dogmatically prioritising densification in established areas while slowing greenfield growth – has failed on every metric that matters.
👎🏻Housing affordability is not improving 👎🏻Supply is nowhere near demand, and 👎🏻The government’s own targets are routinely missed
The reasons remain well-ventilated and unchanged: 🚫High cost base/low productivity in high-density development 🚫High taxes, charges and compliance costs (speeding up planning permits alone doesn’t fix any of this) 🚫Investors (esp. FIRB) being disincentivised (foreign investors were a key factor in the last apartment boom) 🚫General demand for space at a price, both for local buyers and especially given the preferences of predominant migrant cohorts
The only way the proportion of new homes goes back to 70:30 is if greenfield development is deliberately slowed down – but based on demand, this also would mean only ~35,000 homes are built per year (against an 80,000 target)!
🏠Not to mention that a non-significant proportion of approvals in established areas are actually for knockdown-rebuilds of single homes – i.e. no net dwelling increase.
The continued demonisation of new greenfield areas as “sprawl” is not just misguided, it’s actively harmful. The primary reason these areas are missing infrastructure and amenities is the continued Victorian Government overemphasis on infrastructure projects in established areas, at the expense of investing in newer suburbs.
👨👩👧👦In reality, this approach ignores what the market wants and what most Victorians can actually afford. The result? A “missing middle” in housing supply, skyrocketing prices, and a generation locked out of home ownership.
I also take exception to Patrick Fensham intimating that broadacre developers don’t focus on high-quality design and local infrastructure. We care deeply about creating affordable places that people love to live in.
🤔Faceless government spokespersons can continue #gaslighting Victorians as much as they like about “boosting housing supply”. The first two years of the #housingstatement have only seen approvals and commencements drop.