Commentary
Housing supply, planning, tax and feasibility — analysis written by Max and republished from LinkedIn.
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After all, commencements tell you what will be completed in future. The September QTR 2024 saw 14,193 dwelling starts in Victoria.
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Against needing 60,000 completions per quarter to reach 1.2m homes over 5 years, the September 2024 quarter recorded just 44,884 completions per the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
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It’s not due to “high” interest rates; if rates were the primary reason you would not have seen rapid growth in Perth, Adelaide and SEQ over the same period.
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Many in the development industry have a view on the Nightingale model which I’m not here to address. Other things in the article really struck me.
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Planning and related requirements have grown exponentially over the last few decades, yet resourcing to deal with said regulations has not grown to match.
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It boils down to “how can things get any worse” than they were in 2024? That’s no given.
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2024 was a mixed bag for development. Some of the country sustained an extended sales and delivery cycle, with challenges.
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His words confirm, in no uncertain terms, that his opposition to a (compliant) subdivision application had nothing to do with that particular application.
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Here’s an uncomfortable truth: Prices simply cannot drop if you also want to stimulate new supply*. Why?
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Aspirations to foster investment won’t turn to reality without suitable land supply or allowing industry to get on with delivering it.