The sheer level of disaggregated change needed to build 1,700,000 homes in Melbourne across 25 years is nothing short of staggering. An average of 68,000 additional homes built in Melbourne alone, each and every year, for 25 years.
It means taking (literal) bulldozers to 30%+ of many established suburbs, in addition to building multiple high-rise towers across each, by 2051.
The whole of Victoria (including the regions) finished just 59,000 dwellings over the last year of ABS data (Q2 2024 to Q1 2025), and only commenced just over 53,000 in the same period.
Metro Melbourne generates about 80% of the State’s total housing need. Hence, the 80,000 #housingstatement target across the State.
📉The gap between the target and delivery is only growing.
Meanwhile, Councils continue to claim that they approve most development applications, and that they aren’t the (current) bottleneck in #housingsupply. That is somewhat true – they still aren’t the main barrier to higher density approvals (that’s cost), but they (and State authorities) remain serious bottlenecks for any other housing type.
🔮You can already see how this plays out: • State Government creates unachievable targets • Councils can’t meet them • State intervenes more as a “stick” • Still nothing gets built because what they are pushing isn’t #feasible • Everyone blames #developers
🤔As usual, the petty politics will get in the way of real outcomes.