they’re doing all of this to sell the idea that they’re solving housing supply without actually solving housing supply,”
Call it what you will – housing target theatre, planning politics, unfounded hope – the fact remains that building mid or high-rise apartments will not solve #housingaffordability in Victoria (or anywhere else in Australia).
The combination of: 👎🏻high construction costs 👎🏻low productivity 👎🏻limited builder/labour capacity 👎🏻increasing regulation 👎🏻low demand (mainly due to necessary price points)
means, per my quote in today's Herald Sun: “All of this stuff conspires to make the end price that you need to charge consumers significantly higher than what they’re prepared to pay. And as long as that remains the case you’re not going to see apartments happen at scale.”
Do you know why the "Victorian Government spokesperson" gets to gleefully state that "Victoria leads the nation in housing approvals and completions"? It's certainly not because of its 70:30 targets.
🏡It's solely because there was so much #greenfield capacity that is now being rapidly eroded. The moment this dries up, per current policy, the numbers will drop.
📊Since the start of 2023, in 9 quarters, 74,118 detached homes have been started, compared with 45,963 units (including townhouses). That's just 38% of new starts being in forms of "density".
🍒That's not a cherry-picked timeframe – the numbers have been proportionately similar since 2018.
And, since the start of 2023, just 13,300 total starts per quarter on average, vs. the 20,000 completions required each quarter for 10 years per the #housingstatement.
🏢The push for high density is failing in Victoria, just like it is failing in NSW, WA, QLD and the rest of the country. And, it's more frustrating to see the falsehoods repeated about "higher" infrastructure costs as restated by Stephen Glackin, particularly when compared to the total dwelling cost to the buyer.
🤥Only the Victorian Government and NSW Government continue to overstate the capacity of high-density apartments to get "young people" into homes of their own in the areas they "want" to live in. For now.