Lots of people have asked for my take on the new Victorian Government Housing Targets 2051. Here's my unfiltered perspective.
It's clear that politicians love big, audacious numbers which they will never be accountable for.
🚄Infrastructure is sold based on how big the spend (usually in billions is), not on the value it generates.
⚽And if there is no chance of reaching an existing housing target? Just set the goalposts further out and imagine a bigger, future number instead.
And so it continues here in #Victoria. The weekend's announcement expands the already doomed 80k p.a. (or 800k over 10 year) Housing Statement target, and raises the bar to 80k+ p.a., every year, for 27 years, to reach a revised target of 2.2m+ new homes by 2051.
🧑🏻⚖️Just don't judge it until then, right?
Goals and targets are fundamental to success – we all need to know what we working towards.
But housing targets are utterly worthless if they don't also specify: 🤔the types of housing to be delivered – #apartments, #land, #townhouses, #terraces etc 🤔the #demographics and configuration of the dwellings to meet their needs 🤔how much they are assumed to cost buyers 🤔what #infrastructure investment will be made to support them 🤔what #planning and regulatory changes will be made to reduce barriers to delivery 🤔what #incentives and disincentives will exist to ensure they are met
So far, we have more big numbers, with no evidence of how they were derived, what they represent, or how they can actually be delivered.
Let's look examine just two areas I know well – both non-growth, middle-ring Councils: 🎯Dandenong – 57,000 (2,111 p.a.) vs. 860 p.a. historic growth 🎯Knox – 47,000 (1,740 p.a.) vs 650 p.a. historic
These are +/-150% higher than historic growth rates, in areas which are generally pro-growth and have minimal developable land supply. Put differently, this is a near doubling of the total housing stock in these areas (currently at 59,400 and 63,100 respectively) within the existing footprint.
It's simply not possible without radical changes which are yet to arise.
For reasons I have clearly set out recently, mid-high rise apartments in areas which don't support them economically is going to leave the country falling well short of any targets. We also won't get there with dual-occupancies on every existing suburban lot, or with granny flats.
We are moving too slow to address the #housingcrisis in the short term, and the focus seems to be on more plans and announcements, instead of rapid actions to fix problems and deliver what will actually work.
✅I'll be the first to support any concrete evidence or process that demonstrates how these targets will be actually met, at scale, instead of just more headlines. I'm waiting.