more than they raise for Canberra.
New data from Revenue NSW : $631 million in residential #StampDuty collected in August 2026: down 24 per cent on a year earlier. Sale volumes fell 18 per cent – a third straight month of decline.
Revenue is more than 40% per cent below the late-2025 peak, and the weakest month since the pandemic.
Three RBA rate rises did part of this damage. The Federal tax changes did the rest, and unlike interest rates, they are permanent.
📉NSW is now estimating a $5.3 billion hit to stamp duty receipts over four years, in a state that raises roughly 35 per cent of the nation's transfer duty.
The Federal upside for creating that damage? $3.6 billion, over the same forward estimates. Both measures commence 1 July 2027, so those estimates capture barely three years of receipts, and the first is a ramp-up.
Meanwhile, the damage compounds.
Every State loses stamp duty income in a downturn, as much as $15 billion nationally over the forward estimates if extrapolating the NSW result.
Land tax falls too, as valuations roll down.
Canberra also loses income tax and GST on the #housingsupply that now never gets built, and on the contractor activity that never happens (for those who don't go broke).
Then add the lost household wealth effect, and the consumer spending that goes with it. It is already being felt by retailers across the nation.
🤔In other words, these changes will cost the States more than four dollars in lost transfer duty for every dollar the Commonwealth raises. Before land tax, before income tax, before GST reductions are considered.
🥅 What a complete economic own goal.