The Albanese government's negative gearing and capital gains tax changes, restricting concessions to newly built housing, will do little for affordable supply. Quay's Chris Bedingfield says population growth of 200,000 to 300,000 a year outruns Australia's building capacity and the budget leaves GST, planning and development fees untouched.
As I told The Australian: “further derail the housing supply the government claims to support”
I also said: “Treasury has underestimated the frictions these changes create,”
And I added: “New housing doesn't exist in a vacuum; it depends on the established market for valuation benchmarks and liquidity.”
I went on to say: “Without a healthy established market, making new projects stack up becomes harder, and more developments will be shelved,”
I also made the point: “But by deincentivising the next buyer, the government shrinks the pool of capital available to the first buyer,”
And finally: “Investors will try to recover lost tax efficiency through higher rents. Fewer new starts widen the feasibility gap, pushing vacancy rates lower and rents higher.”
The Australian, 16 May 2026 — Read the full article