Here's the final instalment of my pros✅, cons❌, and questionable elements❓ assessment for each announcement, together with a supply impact rating on a 1-5 scale (5 being highest):
7️⃣ Friday: Regional Housing (2)
✅ Simplify developer contributions. Announce location for 1000 social housing units. More town planner support for regional areas. VPA to assist regional towns.
❌ Simpler fairer system = more expensive infrastructure contributions, reducing feasibility and increasing costs,
❓ Investment in streamlining planning approvals across regional areas is small. No assistance with missing infrastructure investment. 1300 social and affordable homes for $1B means each is costing >$700k to deliver
8️⃣Saturday: Rental Reform (0)
✅ Speed up dealing with rental disputes. Further crackdowns on “dodgy” rental providers
❌Like previous tenancy reforms will most skew overly towards consumer protection. Will become a further disincentive to property investors in Victoria
❓No mention of fixing dodgy tenants (guess what, they exist too). Zero contribution to improving housing supply.
9️⃣ Sunday: Fast Track for “Good” Design (2)
✅ Speed up planning approvals for mid-rise projects Minister Sonya Kilkenny deems worthy. Build out demonstration developments for above worthy projects. More pattern book development plans to be made available.
❌ Picking expensive winners, sold the dream by rockstar architects, rather than letting market decide. Planning reform should be broad–based.
❓ Such infill apartment projects were not really being held up in planning. Pattern book development has already failed to delivery material new supply; this will likely be the same. Pricepoint for such is well above affordability ceilings for entry level buyers. Still niche.
🤔Overall Thoughts (2/5)
It's genuinely great to see the State Government finally talking about taking urgent action to dramatically improve housing supply. Unfortunately, my assessment of the policy suite is it will fall short of delivering the boost that is needed, particularly in the short term, and most particularly to the young home buyer audience that is being targeted.
There may be long term dividends but more housing supply pain will come first without further, rapid actions which unlock feasible projects right now.
Have I got it wrong? Let me know whether you think thse announcements will meaningfully move the dial on new housing supply in Victoria