Statistics Housing Commencement & Completion data is painting a stark picture.
Instead of seeing the benefit of purposed planning reforms and systemic fixes, both completions and commencements are well down from their peaks.
📉Just 12,178 overall completions in the March QTR 2024, which would put the whole sector on track for under 50,000 for the year – on track for the lowest figure since 2009.
📉Total commencements sat at 13,226, on target for the lowest annualised rate since 2013 – also circa 50,000.
Both sitting around 37.5% below the Victoria State Government (Victorian Government) Targets.
Now, one quarter doesn't tell the full story, and Q1 can be a low point each year due to the January holiday period, but it's still the worst start to a year since 2014. And based on what I'm seeing out there, the next few quarters could very well end up worse.
📊Charts showing total commencements in houses (blue) and units (orange), plus totals (grey) are attached (totals on secondary axis). Note the rapid drop off in multi-residential (apartment and townhouse) starts since the 2014-2018 peak, and some of those low commencements are yet to filter into low completions in future.
🤔The data doesn't lie – it shows plainly that current planning settings, cost pressures and (lack of) demand drivers mean the apartment sector will not be the solution to new housing supply – particularly on the affordable end.