Now let's see how Victoria is travelling.
If you believe the @National Housing Supply and Affordability Council, Victoria is tracking closest to its #housingaccord #housingtarget of 306,000 over 5 years, with a projected 300,000 completions.
I've previously explained why this is wrong, and ABS dwelling approvals data confirms it. That's because based on an aggressive 95% Approval -> Completion Ratio (CR), Victoria needed around 5,368/month since 1 July 2023 to hit 306k.
🧮The actual average? 4,553/month. Over 28 months, this is a 22,832 shortfall in dwelling approvals.
If this pace remains for the balance 32 months, this translates to around 259,251 completions in the Accord Period – a near 47,000 shortfall. And, unlike every other State, Victoria has barely seen an increase over the last 12 months.
A slow market, low investment confidence and poor business conditions will do that to you.
👥I've also previously shown that based on the expected share of population growth, Victoria should have had a target of 360,000 in the Accord rather than the soft 306,000. My figures show that the real shortfall in new dwellings will be closer to 100,000 over that period.
And let's not forget the State Government's own #housingstatement target of 80,000 homes per year over 10 years. On current figures, the shortfall in the first 5 years will be a lazy 140,000, meaning the last 5 years need to average 108,000 completions!
🤔All the supposed #planningreform in the world won't solve #feasibility or market needs, and won't improve #housingsupply .