I certainly can't.
Whilst things have picked up from the lows of the last two years, 163k and 165k respectively, and perhaps heading towards ~180k this year, 225k is another level.
The nation has only managed that many housing starts twice in a calendar year: • 2016 – in the midst of the foreign developer/foreign investor apartment boom • 2021 (just) – with the post-COVID stimulus package
Those were very different times, particularly when, in that last 2015-2018 extended boom period: ✅ interest rates were far lower ✅ building was less costly and faster, to boot ✅ design regulations were looser ✅ no foreign buyer stamp duty / land tax surcharges ✅ overall affordability / feasibility was in a market sweet spot
There is no suggestion that any of those settings are going to return.
With only 88k commencements in the first half of the 2025 calendar year (Jun qtr 2025 the last reported), getting to the 202k estimated by Macromonitor Pty Ltd for the year will be impossible (requiring a sustained 25% increase for the remaining two quarters of the year).
2025's numbers are also boosted by starts under the Housing Future Fund, which would not otherwise have occurred. With the latest round happening now, commencements will continue into 2026 but not be sustained thereafter (or they will miss the #housingaccord period).
The lagging market in Victoria will also be a handbrake on new scale commencements for some time.
🤔So no, we will not be starting 225,000 new homes in 2027.