Of the 6, I know Cheltenham best, so I read the documents to see what is being proposed.
First things first: when making this scale of infrastructure investment it is logical to get better utility from the land around it. But what do the documents say about achieving this?
1. Growth Rate
The precinct is expected to house an extra 10,400 by 2041 – 4,500 additional homes. Whilst the planning scheme is due to be gazetted by late 2026, developers are unlikely to make big investments until closer to SRL's opening.
When is that? 2035, assuming no delay.
If we grant developers start a few years prior – say 2032 – that suggests the need to complete 4500/9 = 500 new apartments per year to 2041.
Can anyone see this area delivering and/or absorbing that number of new apartments over that timeframe? I can't.
2. Density
Highest density would be along key road corridors – Nepean Hwy, Chesterville Rd, Bay Rd – in buildings of 14-18 storeys on key sites, dropping to 7-10 on smaller sites. Logical on its face, even if much higher than everything in the area now.
The balance of the medium development is primarily anticipated on consolidated lots – i.e. where developers bring multiple lots together.
Lot consolidation is really hard. And, where you've already got a pattern of small-lot subdivision, it becomes nigh on impossible.
The image is an extract from "Neighbourhood C: Nepean Highway East" which is mostly 14m (4 storey) and 21m (6 storey) development.
I've superimposed darker orange where there is existing subdivision which limits consolidation of 2+ developable lots. See how little remains?
I haven't done this everyhere but expect it to be similar. Much more limited than might appear from colours on a plan, let alone once amenity issues are taken into account for existing residents.
A lot of this development is going to be very hard to achieve.
3. Other Observations
Discourage underdevelopment – i.e. actively prevent smaller buildings than preferred height. Will it stop knockdown-rebuilds?
Encourage diversity of housing types by bedrooms – Forced mix irrespective of #feasibility or market.
Affordable housing to the same standard as market housing – who will pay for these?
Limit car parking spaces in new developments – maximum car parking rates
Elevated sustainability requirements including mandatory Green Star for buildings above 5000m2
🤔It will be hard to achieve these dwelling numbers in Australia's largest housing project (ha), before factoring in taxes, regulations and contributions which will make #feasibility even more challenged.
Those are my observations. What did you notice?