see a reboot to trend levels …
I attended the #UDIAV Summit at #Zinc last week and comments from the Victorian Planning Minister got me thinking.
The Minister noted that around 70 precinct structure plans (PSPs) had been approved – around 390,000 hectares or 371,000 lots.
That equates to around 26,500 lots per annum or 5,300 lots per PSP (over the same timeframe, Melbourne Greenfields have been subject to c.15,200 project land sales per annum).
Up to 2014, a total of 43 PSPs had been delivered across the 7 greenfield municipalities (c.235,000 lots), with a double-digit peak of 10 in 2014 or c80,000 lots (a record still).
However, since 2015, only c.28 PSPs have been delivered – an average of 3 per annum (with a peak of 9 in 2018).
AND
Since 2019, only 9 PSPs have been delivered or c.46,000 lots (in a period of fierce incentive driven demand).
Look at the last 5 dots to the right of the chart, year-on-year change in number of PSPs delivered!
As it stands, there are around 140,000 approved lots and we know there is a direct relationship between land supply and price – so we know what is install. Moreover, we know the Government is stifling supply via staging in new PSPs which will drive up prices.
AND
Some land is not available to the market due to constraints around drainage activation, or other infrastructure. Some land held by owners who have no interest in development.
The draft Victorian Planning Authority's annual business plan is due on the Minister desk soon Hopefully it encompasses a number of new greenfield PSP's – which as it stands take around 5 – 7 years from farm door to front door (thanks Greg Bursill).
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