15,498 dwellings were approved in October across Australia – 🏘️9,191 houses and 🏢5,859 units. This leaves the country on track for ~160,000 dwellings approved for the year – a far cry from the 240,000 p.a. Housing Accord Target.
We know that approvals =/= commencements, with the normal ~20% attrition rate even higher at the moment due to #feasibility problems.
Meanwhile, Victoria saw a 4.5% reduction in houses approved (2,659) and an 8.4% increase in units (2,154). This is 28,258 houses and 15,315 units YTD – lineball on whether we hit 50,000 total approvals for the year.
And yet it still leads the pack in gross approvals (though not if adjusted for population growth). I expect commencements to tell a very different story.
These figures remain well below the Victorian Government aspiration of 80,000 new homes built per year. Once attrition is accounted for, approvals from 2024 will deliver just 40,000 dwellings in future; literally half of what is needed.
I've updated my chart to include some more context on where this sits and the absurdity of the #housingstatement 800,000 target.
The red line is the average total monthly approvals required – 8,000 per month or 96,000 per year – to get to the desired 80,000 per year built (green line) assuming a 20% drop off.
The Housing Statement also calls for 70% of housing to be built in established areas – i.e. units. This translates to building 56,000 units per year or 4,666 per month across the state (dark blue). To get there you would need to hit 5,600 unit approvals per month (light blue), year on year for 10 years.
The chasm between current approvals and targets remains stark – even when compared with historic peaks. And the strategies announced thus far will not bridge that gap, especially with the focus on high-density apartment projects.
🤔 The only thing on target 🎯is matters becoming way worse before they get better.