The aim: 1.2 million new homes from 1 July 2024 to 30 June 2029.
Follow along…
Let's assume Australian Bureau of Statistics dwelling approvals in a particular month lead to a completion 12 months later. Ergo, the relevant dwelling approval period is 1 July 2023 onwards. Completions are what matter, after all.
Historically, around 90-95% of approvals actually become a new dwelling. Let's assume 95% to be kind ("Completion Ratio" or CR).
Recently released October 2025 building approvals data represents the 28th month of relevance. So far, a total of 418,493 dwellings have been approved across Australia.
At the 95% CR, this will deliver circa 397,568 new homes being built. An average of 14,199/month.
The Accord actually needs 20,000 completions, on average, each month. Adjusting for CR, this means 21,053 approvals.
Over the 28 months so far, 589,474 dwelling approvals were neded. This makes the shortfall 170,981 approvals, leading to around 162,432 fewer new dwelling completions.
32 months remain in which to make up the difference. The same average approvals rate as the first 28 months (14,946) will deliver 851,932 completions over 5 years – ~350,000 short of target.
The average of the last 12 months – an improved (16,055) – brings this up to 885,631 completions across the #housingaccord period.
Even if things continue to slowly improve, the final figure will end up circa 900,000. And that assumes the higher-end 95% CR.
🤔What if we wanted to catch up from here? Well, at the 95% CR, 1,263,158 approvals are needed over 5 years.
With 418,493 approvals to-date, another 844,665 are required in the next 32 months. 26,396 each and every month, on average.
Put another way, an immediate 64.4% increase on the last year's average, maintained at that pace for 32 months.
🎯Does anyone still think the target is achievable?