There we have it – 3,614 total #housing #approvals across Victoria for June 2024.
An annualised rate of 43,368, before you include the 10-20% of approvals that never get built.
Worse – of the 3,614, just 870 were for "dwellings other than houses" i.e. townhouses and apartments.
The last time there were that few unit approvals was August 2009 – when just 806 were approved.
Total dwelling approvals from Jan-Jun 2024 sit at 23,671, comprising 16,415 houses and 7,256 units. And remember – many of those houses are knockdown-rebuilds, not additional dwellings.
Given: ➡️the Housing Statement target of 80,000 per year ➡️the Victorian Government's goal of 70:30 infill:greenfield; and ➡️the usual 10-20% attrition rate
We would need to achieve 61,600 to 67,200 unit approvals per year to get to 56,000 built.
Right now across the state we are on target to hit around 25% of the unit approvals needed.
🤔My prediction remains for under 50,000 total approvals for the 2024 calendar year – a long way from the 88,000-96,000 we would need to achieve under the Housing Statement which is about "building" 80,000 homes, not just approving them.
❓Does your estimate match mine? GIve me your numbers.