The 80,000 p.a. target in the Victorian Government #Housing Statement will clearly not be reached. And we won't even come close if the current trajectory is maintained.
💡Why? A disconnect between government aspirations, private sector capacity, and market preferences.
➡️Government is trying to limit growth to areas/typologies it deems worthy ➡️People can't be forced to live in homes they don't want, or buy what they cannot afford ➡️Industry capacity is diminished due to public works, and costs continue to climb ➡️Decisions on short term, workable solutions are inflexible, too slow and unwieldy
The most #dwellings ever completed in Victoria in year was 66,902, in 2017. This was when #approvals were elevated in prior years, apartment design rules were simpler, building was far less costly, more land was available, and more local/foreign investors were in the market.
To reach 80,000 p.a. we'd need to maintain a pace 20% above that peak, each year, for 10 years. That's 31% higher than the decade average of 61,100p.a.
📉New approvals are at 12 year lows 📉55,847 dwellings were completed in 2023 – expect this to be lower in 2024
Two years of ~50k completions means an average of 87.5k p.a. needs to be reached for the balance eight. This is not going to happen.
🤔Let's have aspirational targets 🎯, but targets aren't worth the paper they are scribbled on without accompanying actions to get there. The sooner we are all honest about this, the sooner we can start to find solutions change that trajectory 📊