meant to deliver capacity for 60,000 new dwellings.
The type of homes, mix, and how much they are expected to cost remains TBD.
I've previously explained that 8 of the 10 have floated around as potential Activity Centres for over 20 years; 4 go as far back as 1981, without success. Will anything change now?
Here's my developer's perspective on the prospects of short term success for all 10 Activity Centres:
🔸Broadmeadows – Sorry Victorian Planning Authority, utter waste of time. With median price of ~$565k, no one will be buying newly built units there for most of the next decade.
🔸Epping – with median price ~$670k, essentially the same as Broadmeadows.
🔸Frankston – interesting. With suburb median ~$735k it shouldn't work, but amenity along the waterfront is enough to attract some buyers. Ironically, might be skewed to larger, more expensive end. Areas without amenity/views will not work.
🔸Ringwood – median price ~$1.0m. Units will not work when 2 bed house costs the same as a 2 bed apartment 🔸Preston – median price $1.18m, but lots of very cheap units. New apartment projects will struggle to be feasible. If only there was a substantial development which could have been approved 6 months ago to test this assumption Sam Tarascio?
🔸Niddrie + North Essendon – median ~$1.24m, will likely support 2 bedroom apartments; 3 bed a stretch at scale 🔸Chadstone – median ~$1.275m. Likely work for smaller units, on the cusp for 3 bed 🔸Moorabbin – Good area, median ~$1.33m. Similar to Chadstone – will support some apartment projects, mostly 1-2 bed units 🔸Camberwell Junction – median ~$2.7m, apartments will comfortably work across the board ✅
🤔 #Planning for 60,000 homes to be built is not the same as 60,000 homes actually appearing in these areas (which will not happen during the 10 year Housing Statement period). And certainly not without an enormous investment of time and money to underpin them.
Given cost inputs, which continue to grow, only half of these Activity Centres are likely to get close to feasible in the next few years to have the chance of delivering any meaningful housing supply in the form of #apartments.
❓Any apartment developers with an alternative view on feasibility for these areas?
🎯Comment below or Repost with your best guess as to how many dwellings will be delivered across these 10 centres by 2034 (my optimistic number is 12,000).