Lumped, arguably unfairly (see: https://lnkd.in/gG73QeJF) with the largest targets under the #housingaccord – 376k new dwellings over 5 years – NSW remains light years away from reaching that goal.
Needing a lofty average of around 6,900 approvals per month, assuming 90% translate to housing starts, the rolling average for the first 12 months is languishing at around 3,800!
Even if you take my expected-population-growth-adjusted Accord Target of 322k, this translates to needing ~5,900/month.
NSW is in a world of housing pain, with new supply having dropped markedly since the mid-2010s halcyon.
Worse, Sydney's physical constraints mean the State is extra-reliant on high-density #apartment #development to reach its targets. This is seen in the relatively high proportion of unit approvals in the Australian Bureau of Statistics data.
Structural issues with high land prices, construction costs, and development charges mean this type of project remains unfeasible across much of Sydney. Where it is feasible, new supply will be constrained by high prices that sit well outside the capacity of most buyers, especially FHBs.
Translation: there is a much greater chance that the 10% approval attrition rate ends up much higher in NSW. It already has the most unactivated development approvals.
NSW is making the same mistake as VIC, but on steroids. Too many eggs in the density basket without accepting (or ignoring) the #economics.
🎯The perverse incentive in short-term #housingtargets is State planners will push as much volume as they can, hoping things manage to get out of the ground. This is apparent the Housing Delivery Authority (HDA) process, which has discarded many other submissions on the basis they don't deliver a (theoretical) big bang 💣in dwelling numbers during the Accord period. Regional and greenfield areas have, for the most part, been ignored, even though they can deliver much more attainable housing for more people in the mid-term.
🤔Unfortunately Sydney is stuffed, and the rest of the State is being ignored so far, left to languish under the worst planning system in the country. Let's hope the recalibration happens sooner rather than later.